The US economy is in a 'selective recession', JPMorgan strategist says

- The US economy is experiencing a "selective recession," with low-income consumers struggling and high-income households seeing significant wealth creation - JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss pointed out the divide between high-income and low-income consumers - The top 10% of American earners have gained more than $30 trillion in wealth since 2020 - High-income consumers are driving around half of all consumer spending in the US - Lower- to middle-income consumers are falling behind as the cost of living rises - The top 10% of households have gained $30.5 trillion in wealth since 2022, while the bottom 50% have gained just $1.8 trillion - Low-income households are more impacted by inflation, with 65% of households earning less than $25,000 a year finding inflation very stressful - Middle-income consumers are also affected by price increases, with many rating their finances and ability to save as poor - Some forecasters warn of a consumer-led recession already taking place, with retail sales dropping 4% year-over-year in the first quarter

🚨 Reddit sentiment: negative - Most comments are focused on the negative impacts on the economy, highlighting declines in home sales, leading economic indicators, retail performance, and manufacturing data. Summarized comments: - Home Sales tanking >Pending home sales, the quintessential leading indicator for housing with all its powerful multiplier impacts, dropped -2.1% MoM in May, slicing below the April 2020 recession low and now the weakest since the series began in the 2001 downturn. - Leading Economic data cliff diving >Current max drawdown for ⁦@Conferenceboard⁩ Leading Economic Index now at -14.7%, which is only consistent with recessions looking back at history - Retail collapsing >WBA, NKE LATEST TO JOIN IN RETAIL COLLAPSE AS CONSUMER SLOWS - Manufacturing >... too many poor data points to list - Covid disabling the workforce >https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01074597 - So many dead people >https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&country=~OWID_WRL&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&Metric=Excess+mortality+%28estimates%29&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false Stock tickers discussed: $WBA, $NKE