Predictions for CPI?
Posted: May 11, 2024
- The post is about the Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting model which predicts inflation in real time - The model uses a combination of economic indicators and data including consumer spending, producer prices, and labor market information - The model is updated regularly and provides a current estimate of inflation - Investors can use this information to make decisions about their portfolios and understand inflation trends. - The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily estimates or forecasts of present inflation rates for the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Nowcasts are produced using a model that combines daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI and PCE inflation readings - Inflation is estimated for month-over-month, year-over-year, and quarterly annualized percent changes - The accuracy of the nowcasts varies depending on factors such as the measure being forecasted and the point in the month or quarter - The core inflation nowcasts change infrequently and are based on a small number of data series, while headline inflation nowcasts can change based on oil and gasoline price data - The nowcasts have historically been accurate and have outperformed other statistical models, professional forecasters' surveys, and the Greenbook - The estimates are updated daily and can be accessed on the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland website - For more information and related research, visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's website and consult their user's guide.
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