LAC is going to go down further, I’m going to keep buying
Posted: May 24, 2024
- Reddit user holds LAC stock - Short seller Bleecker Street questions viability of LAC's Thacker pass lithium mine - Near-term stock price likely to drop due to capital requirements and potential share dilution - US lithium supply chain far behind China's, which has strategic implications - Gangfeng Lithium's cancelled Sonora mine project indicates strategic importance of owning lithium reserves - Thacker pass has significant clay-based lithium reserves - US needs large amounts of lithium for energy transition - Zero US manufacturers of lithium battery cells - US government support for LAC through DOE loan - NPV of Thacker pass project may not be as important in the long run - LAC stock expected to drop before becoming profitable by 2028 as production ramps up. - LAC is a pre-revenue junior miner aiming to become the sixth-largest lithium producer by 2028 - Thacker Pass mine in Nevada has an uneconomic NPV at current lithium prices - Extracting lithium from clay has historically been unsuccessful - LAC's claims of success in extracting lithium from clay are questionable - LAC recently "bagged" equity holders with a $275m offering, diluting shareholders by 33% - GM's investments in partnerships for EV initiatives have not fared well - LAC's DOE loan approval may require additional dilution for funding - LAC faces significant hurdles in meeting DOE loan requirements and financing needs - LAC's unit economics are broken and not projected to improve - Conditional DOE loan announcements have historically led to substantial stock price declines - The involvement of GM may not be as positive as it seems, based on past partnerships with other companies
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