How to know which way to play earnings, every time.
Posted: Jun 27, 2024
- Morningstar's fair market value on Robinhood Gold may not accurately predict stock direction after earnings - Example stocks: Nike, FedEx, Broadcom, Salesforce, Walgreens, Lululemon - Experiment results show stocks tend to go in the direction opposite their fair market value after earnings - Strategy: Buy calls if FMV is below price, buy puts if FMV is above price - Examples not always consistent, but trend is noticeable - Next play: First Solar ($FSLR) - FMV $185, PBE $250, buying 7/26 $285 calls ahead of earnings on 7/25
🚨 Reddit sentiment: mixed/negative - Most comments express skepticism and doubt, although a few are open to testing the theory Summarized comments: - Small sample size and confirmation bias could be problematic - Skepticism about the method with some suggesting it won't always work - Some comments are sarcastic about the simplicity and effectiveness of the method - Some users are open to testing the theory and reporting back - Mention that stock analyst ratings often skew towards buying recommendations - ADBE earnings were played using the opposite strategy and resulted in a win - Morningstar's ratings may not be reliable, but intrigue exists around researching their accuracy Stock tickers discussed: $ADBE
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