🚀 SOC: Trump's Executive Order Just Turned California Into The Greatest Regulatory Arbitrage Play of 2025 - A Deep F*cking Value Analysis
Posted: Jan 22, 2025
- President declared SOC's regulatory problems a national emergency
- SOC (Sable Offshore) bought ExxonMobil's shutdown California oil fields
- Deal structure requires restarting production by January 2026
- These assets hold 646 million barrels of oil, trading at 1/5 of peer value
- Trump's executive order gives SOC federal powers like Defense Production Act and Federal Preemption
- CEO traded private jet for shares, displaying strong belief in company
- Potential for short squeeze as shorts bet against oil during energy emergency
- Upside includes trading up to peer valuations (5x) and potential for higher stock price
- Downside includes potential failure to restart production, losing investment to Exxon in 2026
What do people on Reddit think?
🚨 Reddit sentiment: mixed/negative - While the DD (due diligence) seems solid, there are doubts about the author's track record and skepticism about operational challenges in restarting oil production, leading to a generally cautious sentiment. Summarized comments: - Discussion includes past performance concerns with $BARK and AAC, noted for a -90% decline - Skepticism about Trump's Executive Order due to potential legal injunctions - Uncertainty about the timeline and feasibility of recommissioning oil operations after 10 years of dormancy - General skepticism towards the deep value analysis despite interest in oil market conditions due to the administration's plans - Concerns about the condition and cost of restarting oil production given the downtime of over ten years Stock tickers discussed: $BARK, AAC
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